Exxon Mobil (NYSE: XOM) remains in focus today after the US launched a military strike against Venezuela, detaining the country’s president (Nicolás Maduro) and his wife (Cilia Flores).
The geopolitical escalation has rattled energy markets, given that Venezuela currently holds about 18% of the world’s proven crude oil reserves.
In early trading, XOM shares are seeing heightened volatility on January 5th as investors evaluate what the US-Venezuela conflict would mean for the global oil stocks in 2026.
Why the US-Venezuela conflict may lift Exxon’s stock price
For Exxon, the prospect of renewed US involvement in Venezuela’s oil industry could open doors to vast untapped reserves.
If American firms are granted access to production and export infrastructure, XOM could notably expand its resource base at a time when global supply chains remain fragile.
Investors may benefit from accelerated revenue growth and strong cash flows as the White House prioritizes US companies in rebuilding Venezuela’s energy sector.
Meanwhile, a disruption in the country’s exports could also tighten global supply – pushing crude prices higher and boosting margins for integrated majors like Exxon.
In short, this geopolitical development may translate into opportunity, positioning XOM shares as the prime beneficiary of shifting energy dynamics.
Why the US-Venezuela conflict may pressure XOM shares
On the other hand, the sudden military intervention raises the risk of oversupply and volatility.
If US companies were to flood the market with Venezuelan crude, global inventories would swell – driving oil prices even lower in 2026.
While Exxon shares have demonstrated resilience against weakening prices thus far, they remain sensitive to commodity cycles, and a further softness in oil benchmarks will likely hurt the firm’s earnings this year.
Additionally, political instability complicates operations as well – sanctions, contested ownership rights, and local unrest could delay projects or erode profitability.
The US-Venezuela conflict may prove a liability for XOM also because it could spark broader risk-off sentiment, further limiting appetite for cyclical stocks.
Jay Woods explains how to play Exxon stock in 2026
Senior market technician Jay Woods believes the upside is much more likely to play out in XOM stock this year.
According to him, despite oil trading around the $60 level, the multinational has broken out to new highs – following multi-year consolidation between $102 and $118.
In his latest report, Woods argued a push past $126 will clear the way for Exxon to climb into the $140s over the next 12 months.
Wall Street firms also expect the US oil giant to rally further in 2026.
According to the Wall Street Journal, the consensus rating on XOM currently sits at “overweight” – with price targets going as high as $158, indicating potential upside of another 30% from here.
A healthy dividend yield of 3.33% makes Exxon all the more attractive to own at current levels.
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