Shares of StubHub (STUB) surged Thursday after the ticketing marketplace reported stronger-than-expected first-quarter earnings, fueled by rising ticket demand and improving profitability that helped ease investor concerns following a prolonged stock decline.
The stock jumped as much as 21% during the session and was recently trading around $9.64, putting shares on pace for their largest daily percentage gain on record, according to Dow Jones Market Data.
Despite the rally, StubHub shares remain down 36% year to date and roughly 60% below their record closing high of $22 reached in September 2025.
The earnings report marked a significant turnaround for the company, which has posted a string of quarterly losses in recent periods.
Ticket demand drives earnings beat
StubHub reported adjusted earnings of 6 cents per share for the first quarter, compared with a loss of 12 cents per share a year earlier.
The result also exceeded Wall Street expectations, which had called for earnings of about 1 to 2 cents per share.
Revenue rose 12% year over year to $446 million, ahead of analyst expectations of roughly $425 million, according to FactSet.
Gross merchandise sales increased 7% to approximately $2.2 billion as demand for live events, including concerts and sporting events, remained strong.
The company’s adjusted EBITDA climbed to more than $72 million during the quarter.
StubHub also generated positive net income after reporting a loss in the prior-year period.
Operating cash flow and free cash flow nearly doubled from a year earlier, while the company ended the quarter with approximately $1.5 billion in cash.
Management additionally continued reducing leverage, including another $100 million debt payment made in May.
StubHub reiterated its full-year 2026 guidance, forecasting gross merchandise sales between $9.9 billion and $10.1 billion and adjusted EBITDA between $400 million and $420 million.
Analysts see progress but remain cautious
Following the earnings report, several Wall Street firms raised price targets on the stock while maintaining relatively cautious ratings.
Morgan Stanley analysts led by Cameron Mansson-Perrone raised their price target to $8.75 from $8.25 while maintaining an Equal Weight rating.
The analysts said StubHub’s first-quarter results “represented progress toward” delivering on the company’s 2026 targets.
Morgan Stanley said its balanced stance reflected “the strength of demand and overall growth outlook for live experiences, weighed against caution around the competitive nature of secondary ticketing.”
J.P. Morgan also raised its price target on StubHub shares to $11 from $10 while maintaining a Neutral rating.
Guggenheim lifted its target price to $8.50 from $7.50 after the company exceeded both firm and consensus estimates for revenue and EBITDA.
The company also disclosed that it settled with the Federal Trade Commission for $10 million.
According to FactSet data, StubHub currently holds an average Overweight rating from Wall Street analysts, with an average price target of $12.85, implying additional upside from current trading levels.
World Cup and new initiatives add optimism
Analysts also pointed to several potential catalysts that could support StubHub’s business over the coming year.
Morgan Stanley highlighted the upcoming FIFA World Cup as a possible boost for the broader secondary ticketing industry.
“Our World Cup work suggests that the event could prove a meaningful tailwind for the secondary ticketing industry,” Mansson-Perrone wrote.
The firm estimates the tournament alone could lift StubHub’s gross merchandise sales by between 1.3% and 9.1%.
Beyond major sporting events, StubHub is also expanding new business initiatives aimed at supporting future growth.
The company said it is pursuing an open distribution strategy designed to work more directly with rights holders on ticket issuance.
Management is additionally developing an advertising business intended to monetize StubHub’s large audience of event-focused consumers.
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