SpaceX stock (NASDAQ: SPCX) has lost almost half its value since reaching a high of $225.64 on June 16, turning the excitement surrounding the listing into a lesson about valuation and share supply.
The stock closed Wednesday at $112.55, around 17% below its $135 IPO price and 50.2% beneath the peak.
More than $1 trillion in market value has disappeared despite progress in Starship testing and demand for launch and Starlink services.
Jim Cramer remains optimistic about SpaceX’s long-term prospects, but he believes investors planning a large purchase should wait until after the company reports earnings and the first insider lock-up expires.
The next threat is share supply, not another failed launch
SpaceX will publish its first quarterly results as a public company on August 4. Two days later, roughly 911.5 million restricted shares are expected to become eligible for trading.
IPO lock-ups prevent founders, employees and early investors from selling their holdings.
Their expiration does not guarantee that every eligible share will be sold, but it increases the available supply and can pressure prices when demand is already fragile.
Cramer said investors could “maybe buy a little” before the event, according to CNBC, but urged anyone considering a major position to wait.
His concern is that an encouraging earnings report may struggle to offset the prospect of more stock entering the market.
SpaceX used a staggered lock-up structure rather than a conventional single 180-day restriction.
Further portions will become tradable over the following months, keeping the supply overhang alive beyond August.
That makes Cramer’s argument about timing rather than the company’s direction.
Strong results could spark a rebound, but disappointing financial details combined with insider selling could push the shares closer to $100.
Wall Street sees opportunity but disagrees sharply
Morgan Stanley analyst Adam Jonas maintained an Overweight rating and a $300 target.
Barron’s reported that he values SpaceX’s established launch and broadband operations at about $136 a share.
Jonas argued that a price near $100 would effectively assign no value to the company’s artificial-intelligence operations.
That could create an opportunity if SpaceX turns its computing infrastructure, xAI relationship and proposed orbital data centres into durable revenue.
Raymond James analyst Brian Gesuale has taken an even more aggressive position, assigning a Strong Buy rating and an $800 target.
The Financial Times reported that the forecast assumes SpaceX becomes a foundational platform spanning launch, satellite communications, national security and AI infrastructure.
A 50% crash does not automatically make SpaceX cheap
The bearish case is that SpaceX still carries a valuation supported heavily by future businesses.
Starlink must produce durable margins, Starship must achieve reliable reusability and AI investments must generate enough revenue to justify enormous capital needs.
CFRA Research analyst Keith Snyder initiated coverage with a Sell rating and a $115 target.
Business Insider reported that Snyder admired the company’s vision but believed its financial disclosures did not yet justify the valuation.
HSBC analyst Nicolas Cote-Colisson also started coverage with a Hold rating and a $115 target, reflecting confidence in SpaceX’s launch leadership but caution over its broader ambitions.
The August 4 report must provide evidence on cash burn, Starlink economics, capital expenditure and the timeline for emerging AI projects.
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