AMD and SanDisk both fell about 9% after reporting strong quarterly results last week, but one investor sees very different opportunities in the two stocks.
James Foord, economist and leader of The Pragmatic Investor, is bearish on AMD but bullish on SanDisk.
As per TipRanks, he believes AMD’s rapid AI growth is not yet producing the margin gains investors should expect, while SanDisk may be building a more profitable and less cyclical business.
AMD’s AI growth is spectacular, but margins are not
AMD reported record second-quarter revenue of $11.54 billion, up 50% from a year earlier, while adjusted earnings reached $1.66 a share.
Data Center revenue more than doubled to $6.72 billion as demand for EPYC processors and Instinct accelerators accelerated.
Yet AMD expects adjusted gross margin to remain at 56% in the third quarter, unchanged from Q2. That flat outlook landed badly after the stock’s earnings run.
“The margin problem is the new bear case,” Foord argues. He believes AMD’s shift from individual accelerators towards rack-scale systems adds networking, integration and other costs, potentially limiting the operating leverage investors expect from booming AI sales.
Wall Street has noticed the same tension. William Blair analyst Sebastien Naji said the quarter left “much to prove,” pointing to fierce competition and the need for Helios to ramp and win accelerator share.
SanDisk’s contracts could rewrite the memory playbook
SanDisk’s numbers were striking. Fiscal fourth-quarter revenue surged 372% year on year to $8.97 billion, adjusted EPS reached $39.25 and non-GAAP gross margin climbed to 84.6%.
Data-centre revenue doubled sequentially to nearly $3 billion. But investors focused on September-quarter gross-margin guidance of 83% to 85%, suggesting profitability may be near a plateau.
Foord sees the pullback differently. “SanDisk is a Strong Buy today,” he said, according to TipRanks, arguing that the company’s New Business Model agreements could reduce the boom-and-bust character of NAND earnings.
SanDisk now has eight customers covered by those agreements, with $93.9 billion of minimum contracted revenue at floor pricing.
About half of fiscal 2027 bits and roughly two-thirds of fiscal 2028 bits are committed.
JPMorgan analyst Harlan Sur said the results point towards stronger earnings power, lower cyclicality and more durable fundamentals.
Raymond James analyst Melissa Fairbanks went further, lifting her SanDisk target to $2,000 from $1,470.
Barron’s reported that she sees AI data-centre demand and the new contract model improving earnings visibility, pricing discipline and margin resilience.
Two sell-offs, but very different tests ahead
AMD still has catalysts. EPYC demand remains strong, Instinct deployments are expanding and its Helios rack-scale platform could strengthen the company’s challenge to Nvidia.
If those products drive market-share gains and margin expansion, Foord’s bearish case could weaken quickly.
SanDisk faces the opposite burden of proof. RBC Capital Markets analyst Srini Pajjuri warned that investors may remain sceptical about floor pricing until the agreements have been tested through a weaker memory environment.
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